Real Estate - an alternative investment_英语论文

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● 潘树盛  By Roy Phua　　Asia's all enduring preoccupation with real estate is undergoing a reality check as a conse-quence of the economiccrisis. Private residen-tial property prices in Singapore, have collapsed by over 45% from its peak in for example, 1996. The shock and dismay of die-hard real estate believersis not surprising. For many, however, the rationale that underpinned that real estate investment is showing surprising flaws. Arguments such as "land is finite" persuade in boom years, but are now denounced by some as intellectual garbage. The long-term prospects of real estateinvestment, while not entirely mis-placed, are subject to investment cycles, interest rates and changes in government policies, like all other forms of investments. Putting all of one's investment eggs in the property basket, as many Asians have been inclined to do in recent years, is unlikely to hatch a balanced invest-ment strategy. This article examines the possi-bilities.　　Real estate investments are very long term in nature andpossess two important characte-ristics that are often less than understood: leverage and illiquidity. These factors accen-tuate the capital gains on real estate in boom times and magnify the loss on the downturn. If one were to invest $200,000 (borrowing $500,000) to purchase a $700,000 property for example, a simple 10% rise in property price a year would translate into about a 21% return on the originalinvestment, net of interest expense assumed at 5.5% p.a.. With that same interest assumption, a 10% fall in property price how-ever would translate into a loss of about 48% on that same $200,000 investment, the tragic con-sequence of leverage working in reverse. The illiquidity of real estate is another important factor for consideration. Exiting a real estate in-vestment often requires time and patience, par-ticularly so in a less favourable environment. The average investor needs to consider the sheer amount of the financial investment and the uni-queness of each property asset. The illiquidity limits the flexibility investors havewhen they need to realign their investments in accordance with changing market conditions or changes in investment needs.　　The long-term nature of real estate in-vesting requires it to be matched with stable, long-term cash flows. Assumptions on income growth, interest rate trend and rentalyields are important, and when they do not materialise as planned (or hoped for), the investment goes awry. In addition, the size of the upfront capital commitment in realestate investing makes di-versification within the asset class difficult to achieve. The real estate investor has the bulk of his investments locked into a few properties. Seen from this perspective, real estate investing can be a high risk venture. The risk does di-minish with a long-term time horizon, but the rate at which Singaporeans turn over their real estate investments suggests a shorter term, high-risk attitude prevails.　　Asia's love affair with real estate has been fuelled by easy money and accommodative government policies. These conditions are not present today. The era of supernormal returns from real estate investing is over. Bankers are licking their wounds from loans gone sour and have turned wary about lending for real estate investment (as opposed to home ownership). Having experienced the effects of an over-zealous appetite for real estate, it is probable that both of these factors are unlikely to be as potent in the future. The new Asia requires that the bold assumptions of old be tempered- stable interest rates, "guaranteed" employment, "guranteed tenants", etc. Price appreciation will be more gradual hereon and more in keeping with inflation. Other investment options need to be considered and matched with one's age, obli-gations and financial aspirations.(The author is Equity Manager of Rothschild Asset Management.) 　　退烧后的亚洲房地产　　　亚洲人对房地产投资情有独钟，不过经过一场经济危机的冲击，人们对房地产持久性的信念正面临考验。　　举例来说，新加坡的私人住宅价格，从高峰期算起已经退跌了超过45%。死硬的房地产“信徒”，对此感到震惊、沮丧并不奇怪。对很多人来说，过去支持房地产投资的理性基础，也正现露出破绽。像“土地有限”的论点，在市场大好时很有说服力，但现在被很多人看成是“学理垃圾”。房地产投资具有长期前景，这个说法也不完全错，但它和其他投资形式一样，逃不过周期、利率和政府政策改变的影响。因此投资时，如果像亚洲人过去几年那样，把所有的蛋都放在房地产篮子里，就不可能制订出平衡的投资策略。　　房地产投资是长期的，它有两个往往被忽略掉的重要特质：高额借贷和套现困难。因为这些特质，投资者在市场猛涨时，能捞取可观的资本收益；但遇到衰退期，“烧伤程度”也同样会加重。　　举例来说，一个人如果出资20万，再借贷50万元购买一个售价70万元的房地产，只要房地产价格在一年之中上涨10%，他从20万元投资中所取得的回报就有约21%之多，这是扣掉利息成本（假设年利率为5.5%）后算出的。以相同利率计算，价格如果跌10%，20万元投资的亏损就大约是48%，这是高额借贷的痛苦结局。　　投资房地产，很重要的另一点考虑是套现不容易。从房地产投资中退出是需要时间和耐性的，在不利环境下尤其如此。由于是大手笔投资，每一个房地产项目也都具有独特性，普通投资者因此不能掉以轻心。一旦市场环境起了变化或投资需要改变，而必须重组投资来配
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